October 2023 Real Estate Market Update

Are you a homeowner in Collingwood or The Blue Mountains or maybe plan to purchase here?  Let’s dig in to an update on the local real estate market trends from October 2023.  In this blog post, I’ll share the hidden opportunities for those looking to buy OR sell!

From a high level perspective, in October 2023 – we experienced a total sales volume of 60 properties, representing a year over year plateau – October 2022 also saw 60 property sales in Collingwood and the Blue Mountains.  Compare that to last month, and that’s a decline of 32% in Blue Mountains (7 fewer home sales) and a slight increase of 0.04% in Collingwood (2 more home sales than September).  Sales volume is one of the key metrics that I do track, but The Blue Mountains statistics always vary wildly because the subset is so small.  It’s a safe bet to look at Collingwood’s stats as a trend indicator – sales volume staying steady from September to October is what I would expect.

There were fewer new listings brought to market in October than September but we currently have 8.55 months of supply available in Collingwood & The Blue Mountains.  What does that mean?  

Months of supply tells you how many months it would take for all the homes currently on the market to sell, given the average sale volume.  Less than 4 months means there’s not a lot of inventory available, 4-6 months of inventory indicates a more balanced market, More than 6 months of inventory – like we have now – indicates a Buyer’s Market.  This means there are lots of properties available for buyers to choose between, which can typically drive prices down.  So let’s look at the Average Price and see!

Average Price in Collingwood & The Blue Mountains

The average price for a home in The Blue Mountains is $1,141,960 and Collingwood it’s $868,295.  Blue Mountains’ average price is down 12% from last month which could be a reflection of the increased inventory that I mentioned earlier.  That said, we are up a whopping 25% from this time last year.  That sounds like a lot but keep in mind: October 2022 was our second largest price dip in the last two years, besides March 2023.  And remember what I said earlier about Blue Mountains stats swinging wildly because of its small data subset. What’s interesting- and what I want to focus on –  is Collingwood’s average price is up from last month by 6.8% and staying fairly level with last year.  So while we have more supply, less demand, the prices in Collingwood are gradually increasing month over month.  Curious.

List-to-Sale Ratio

Moving along, the average List-to-Sale Price Ratio in The Blue Mountains and Collingwood was 97.6%, meaning the home sold for 2.4% less than the last posted List Price – keep in mind that this doesn’t compare to the original list price, just the last posted list price.  Both regions saw an increase from this time last year – which was 92.8% in Blue Mountains and 96.3% in Collingwood.  If this stat is at or above 100%, it indicates that there are bidding wars or multiple offers.  We’re seeing this stat at 97.6%, which indicates that buyers are negotiating at slightly lower than the asking price.

Days on Market

Now you might be wondering how long it’s taking properties to sell? On average in October in The Blue Mountains & Collingwood it was taking 39.5 days for a property to sell – down from 45.5 days in September.  So just know that if you’re planning to sell your home it’s going to take longer than it has in the past, and this is where pricing strategy is so important. 

Mortgage Rate range

Ok if you’re thinking about buying real estate in the near future, mortgage rates are ranging between 5.85% to 6.89% depending if you are going fixed or variable, are insured, insurable, or uninsurable, and whether you’re getting financing through a bank or an alternative lender.  I always recommend you connect with a great Mortgage Broker before you start your house search to get a firm grasp of the numbers and what you can afford.  The Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement is December 6, 2023.  With the stabilization of rates, we will likely see more activity in the market.

What does this mean for you?

So in summary, when we look at October’s market statistics in The Blue Mountains and Collingwood, we’re firmly in a Buyers Market with inventory up and demand BUT, we aren’t seeing drastically wide list-to-sale price ratios.

One really important thing to understand is that macro level market statistics really mean nothing in Southern Georgian Bay. What’s happening in Collingwood and The Blue Mountains can be completely different than what’s happening somewhere else and even within the Southern Georgian Bay region, there are different micro markets everywhere.  Our waterfront real estate versus the more rural real estate of Beaver Valley will differ wildly.  A general update like this may not translate to your specific pocket of Southern Georgian Bay.  

In terms of opportunities in this market, buyers are in the driver’s seat and are able to choose from a large pool, take their time reviewing and negotiate on important conditions.  On the seller side, you can make opportunities by going to market with a tailored pricing strategy that’s made for this unique market.  

The bottom line is that whether you’re buying or selling, your situation is unique and a general market update should be taken with a grain of salt. 

 If you want an accurate market analysis for your home or you’re thinking of buying and want to know where hidden opportunities may lie, you can either request a free no-obligation market evaluation or book a call with me to have a no-pressure conversation about your options.  I’ll always just give you the straight facts so you’re informed to make the best decision that’s right for you, based on your personal situation. If that would be helpful, you can click the link with this video and set it up.  I’ll be back next month with an updated report.

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