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November 2023 Southern Georgian Bay Real Estate Market Update

Are you a homeowner in Collingwood, The Blue Mountains, Meaford, Owen Sound or Wasaga Beach?  Or maybe plan to purchase here?  Let’s dig in to an update on the local real estate market trends from November 2023.  In this blog post, I’ll share the hidden opportunities for those looking to buy OR sell!

Let’s look at months of supply to tell us how many months it would take for all the homes currently on the market to sell, given the average sale volume.  Less than 4 months means there’s not a lot of inventory available, making it a Sellers Market; 4-6 months of inventory indicates a more balanced market. More than 6 months of inventory indicates a Buyer’s Market.  This means there are lots of properties available for buyers to choose between, which can typically drive prices down.

In Southern Georgian Bay we are experiencing Buyers and Balanced Markets, depending on the region.

Starting in Collingwood in November we fell from 6.7 months of inventory to 6.5 months of inventory, keeping us within a Buyers Market by 0.5 months.

In Blue Mountains in November we saw an increase by 0.1 to 10.5 months of inventory.

In Meaford, we also saw an increase to 8.3 months on inventory, again this represents a Buyers Market.

In Owen Sound, we have a decrease from 4.7 months to 4.2 months of inventory which is a balanced market – anywhere between 4 to 6 months of inventory is a balanced market.

In Wasaga Beach, we also see a decrease from 5.1 months to 4.6 months: a balanced market as well. 

Now to give you an idea, historically we do tend to be in a sellers or balanced market in the late fall months but you can imagine that with the interest rate headlines the way they are, we have a lot of buyers standing on the sidelines. 

Average Prices In Southern Georgian Bay

So for Average Sale Price, again starting in Collingwood, the average price of the 36 homes sold was $716, 557.  That is a month over month decrease of 17.4% and a year over year decrease of 16%

Now in Blue Mountain there were 12 sales averaging $1,081,158 representing a month over month decrease of 0.8% and a year over year decrease of 42%.  I always like to point out that the Blue Mountains statistics always swing wildly because of its small subset – its data is often too small to give an accurate representation.  

In Meaford, we have 9 homes sold in the month of November with an average price of $808,000.  That’s up 7.4% month over month and up 29% year over year.  Go Meaford!

Lets look at Owen Sound next – 19 Homes sold for an average of $428,289.  That represents a decrease month over month of 21.3 % and a 14.7% year over year decrease.  

Finishing off with Wasaga Beach that saw the busiest November Market of our region with 29 Homes Sold at an average price of $770,790.  That’s a 12.7% increase from October and an 11.3% increase from last November.  

Take it with a Grain of Salt

As you can see from this breakdown, the Southern Georgian Bay region varies quite a bit from town to town.  It’s important to note that this is for all types of houses from condos to detached freeholds, ramshackle fixer uppers to beautifully updated show homes, downtown locations to more rural spots.  So please take it with a grain of salt.

List-to-Sale Ratio

Moving right along to the Sale to List Price.  Let me just point out two things.  First, that the list price in the calculation is the last listed price and does not reflect whether there were price reductions during the properties time on the market.  Secondly, this stat can be drastically affected by various pricing and marketing strategies.  What I notice a lot in this region is listing prices are high – maybe due to Seller expectations or out-of-town agents – and the result is a decreased Sale to List Percentage overall.  It’s so important to find that sweet spot when it comes to the Market Price of your home.

In Collingwood the Sale to List Price is 96%, meaning buyers negotiated 4% off the last list price.

In Blue Mountain, Sale to List Price was 95% in November.

Meaford, 90% was the Sale to List Price 

And finally Both Owen Sound and Wasaga Beach saw a Sale to List Price Ratio of 96%

Days on Market

You’re probably wondering about Days on Market – especially if you’re a Seller right now.  It doesn’t take a Rocket Scientist to tell you the market is slow right now – November is a notoriously slow time in Real Estate, even if we weren’t in the current interest rate environment we are in now.  I expect December to stretch these numbers out even more.  

In Collingwood, the average days on market before a deal went firm was 43 days.

In Blue Mountain, listings stayed put on the market 56 days on average

In Meaford, Days on Market were 69, on average.

Owen Sound listings sat for about 47 days.

And finally Wasaga Beach was just over a month at 34 days on average.

Keep in mind that these numbers get skewed by cancellation and relists – Whether it was for a price reduction, it went conditional and that fell through, it expired or to freshen up the listing – a little trick often used by listing agents. Relisting basically restarts the Days On Market ticker.  So again, this statistic needs to be taken with a grain of salt and realistically DOMs are longer than represented here.

Mortgage Rate range

So, if you’re a home buyer or a home owner looking at mortgage renewals, you’ll be wondering what the Mortgage rates are right now.  Mortgage rates are reigning between low and high 5%, depending if you are going fixed or variable, are insured, insurable, or uninsurable, and whether you’re getting financing through a bank or an alternative lender.  I always recommend you connect with a great Mortgage Broker before you start your house search to get a firm grasp of the numbers and what you can afford. 

Overall, these interest rates seem to be the reason a lot of buyers are waiting on the side lines perhaps because they are squeezed out of the market due to increased stress tests resulting in less purchasing power – which explains why Owen Sound and Wasaga Beach are experiencing balanced markets – or more buyers – because historically you get more bang for your buck in those areas.  

The Increased Inventory numbers are due to sellers either trying to get ahead of increasingly unaffordable payments OR those that are recognizing that this is actually a great time to either upsize or downsize.

So remember those hidden opportunities I mentioned?  This is a great market for anyone who’s been looking to buy – with talks of rate decreases coming, we’re going to see a flood of buyers, who have been waiting on the sidelines, enter the market and competition and price tags will go up accordingly. 

The bottom line is that whether you’re buying or selling, every situation is unique and an in depth analysis needs to be completed before you make any major decisions.  As you can see from this market update, even our Southern Georgian Bay area varies widely from town to town.  If you want an accurate market analysis for your home, or you’re thinking of buying in this region and want to know where the best opportunities are – reach out to connect with me for a no obligation chat about your options.  I’m always going to give you an honest analysis so that you’re informed to make the best decision for you and your family.  If that sounds like it would be helpful, you can click here to set up a call!

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